First you need to consider how you'll access the product data. Since product pricing rules receive a product line item as a default parameter, you can get to the product on the line item via its product reference field. This means you first need to use an Entity has field condition on the line item looking for commerce_product. Then you can use the Data comparison condition to evaluate the type of the product using the data selector commerce-line-item:commerce-product:type.

In Commerce Kickstart, we refer to the individual product entities referenced by a product display node the "variations" of the product, because a multi-value reference typically represents variations amongst a group of products. From a data standpoint, though, you're just dealing with products, which is why you won't see the word "variation" in the selector.